Desire for change marks 2024 National and Provincial Elections

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OPINION by Dr. Lubna Nadvi

As we await the final results and outcome of the 2024 National and Provincial Elections, it would be safe to venture that the desire for change has been the defining feature and characteristic of these elections.

The preference for change of leadership at both national and provincial leadership has been quite evident in the lead-up to the polls over the last several months.

A quick survey of interviews done with potential voters from all walks of life on various media platforms will indicate that South Africans have been very unhappy with the daily realities of life that they have encountered for a very long time. This includes the challenges of load shedding, disruptions in water supply (or no water at all for extended periods), potholes, rampant crime, unemployment, homelessness, food insecurity, increased levels of gender-based violence, corruption and a whole host of other issues.

Even those middle class South Africans living in a brick home, who have a job and have generally enjoyed the privileges of living in a democratic dispensation over the last 30 years have said that they want a change in government precisely because of the increasing disruptions to their comfortable lives over the last few years.

Working class individuals and people without jobs have said that they are tired of the daily struggle to just put food on the table and this is their primary motivation for change. The much more affluent classes who have to some degree been able to mitigate the ravages that came with load shedding and water shortages (by installing generators, solar panels and water storage facilities) have indicated that they are tired of the crime and financial instability that plagues the country and this is what drives them to seek change.

The interesting and significant question that emerges though is, what form is that change taking? Given the plethora of new parties that have entered the electoral race this year, one is effectively spoilt for choice and can choose to vote for either any of the new parties or move to support one of the older parties that they may not have voted for previously.

Given the addition of the regional ballot in 2024, voters have even more choice with being able to cast their vote for independents or vote for the same party on all 3 ballots.

New parties that have emerged and are contesting at the national level are Build One South Africa (BOSA), Rise Mzansi, Xiluva, Sizwe Ummah Nation (SUN) and umKhonto weSizwe Party amongst others. Parties like Allied Movement 4 Change (AM4C) have been around for a while but repackaged themselves with new leadership and updated manifestos. It is almost like having a buffet of political parties to choose from, with a variety of ideas, leaders, manifestos and policies. However, some of the newer parties are not necessarily getting much support from the electorate and this is evident in the results that are coming through.

The most popular of the newly emerging parties appears to be the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) based on the results that have come through so far. The reasons for this are varied and clearly are a consequence of certain criteria that the voters must be applying in selecting (or not selecting), certain parties.

The most visible and early manifestation of change has been the decline in electoral support for the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC) at national and (some) provincial levels, and the shifting of this support to other parties. The electorate that historically voted for the ANC no matter what, has this year chosen to shift their support to other parties (both new and old).

This shift has clearly been driven and shaped by factors mentioned above, as well as the campaigning done by other parties to “lure” voters away from the ANC. This is clearly the start of the process of a more long-term process of change, which will see a period wherein there is no longer a political hegemony by the ANC, but rather a more rigorous contestation between various political parties to earn their place in the political landscape.

Change however is also something that is measured in terms of substantive delivery by those that have been elected into office. While those that manage to gain sufficient votes to secure seats in the national and provincial legislatures will benefit from the privileges afforded to them for the next 5 years, there is now hopefully a realization that in order to keep that position they will have to work for it, and it is not simply guaranteed ad infinitum.

The changes that we are observing in the 2024  elections signal a maturing of our political system albeit not necessarily reflected in the actual choice of parties. For example many are scratching their heads and asking why so many voters would give their vote to the MK party which is headed up by former President Jacob Zuma who has been implicated in corruption scandals, the Zondo Commission and was actually arrested and jailed.

The answer to this question may lie in his popularity amongst a certain sector of the South African electorate or that his party’s messaging about what they want to achieve once elected may have appealed to those voters. Similarly some people wonder why some independents are actually getting any votes at all, when they are not qualified to serve in government.

Only time will tell whether they were the right choice for the voters, or whether they may also be removed from power in 5 years if they do not deliver on the promises they have made.