Making sense of some of the important 2024 general election numbers

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South Africa is technically 21 days away from voting in the country’s seventh national and provincial elections (NPE).

While most of the registered 27.7-million voters will cast their ballot on May 29 between 07h00 and 21h00, voting for overseas voters will take place over two days, on 17 and 18 May 2024.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa or IEC confirmed that 58 802 registered voters ‘out of country’ or outside of South Africa’s borders had registered to cast a ballot in these elections, equating to a mere 0.21% of all registered voters.

The top five places with the most ‘out of country’ registered voters are London 19 518 (33%), the Hague 5572 (9%), Canberra 2609 (4%), Dubai 2574 (4%) and Dublin 2341 (3.98%).

Conversely, capital cities N’Djamena (of Chad) and Nouakchott (of Mauritania) boast just a single registered voter each.

Special votes will be next, scheduled to take place on Monday and Tuesday, 27 and 28 May 2024 respectively between 09h00 and 17h00.

Registered voters versus Voting Age Population (VAP)

According to Stats SA’s numbers from the Census 2022 surveys, the voting age population currently numbers just above 39.7 million. This is a bloc aged 18 and over that can vote in national, provincial and local elections.

The certified voters’ roll for the 2024 NPE is approximately 12-million or 30% less than this number, just under 28-million.

This is a significant number that could have swayed any election.

In the 2014 and 2019 general elections, total cast ballots numbered between 11 and 10 million respectively, illustrating graphically the importance of the ‘missing’ voting age population bloc.

When looking at the provincial picture, Gauteng seems to be the biggest culprit in unregistered ‘voting age population’ voters (59%).

This is despite South Africa’s most populous province going into these elections with the highest number of registered voters, 6.5-million or 24%.

 

VOTING AGE POPULATION VERSUS CERTIFIED VOTERS’ ROLL FOR 2024 NPE
PROVINCE	VOTING AGE POPULATION	VOTERS’ ROLL	% AGAINST VAP
Eastern Cape	4 061 045	3 439 320	84,7%
Free State	1 917 274	1 456 927	76,0%
Gauteng	11 084 944	6 541 978	59,0%
KwaZulu-Natal	7 336 980	5 738 249	78,2%
Limpopo	3 513 779	2 779 657	79,1%
Mpumalanga	3 115 696	2 025 070	65,0%
North West	2 726 235	1 768 576	64,9%
Northern Cape	872 198	656 826	75,3%
Western Cape	5 124 936	3 317 072	64,7%
Out of Country		58 802
TOTAL	39 753 087	27 782 477	69,9%
Information sourced directly from the IEC (VAP figures were supplied by STATS SA as projected to May 2024)

Young people are not registering

Alarmingly, the 18 – 29 age band is the single electoral bloc that persists not to register for elections.

Unlike other age demographics where there seems to be relative political interest, the 18 – 19 age group boasts the lowest number of registered voters, above 550 000 or 27.1% (of the potential 2-million plus that could have voted).

The same can be said for the 20 – 29 age category where some 9-million could have voted on May 29. By close of the voters’ roll deadline, only 4.4-million had registered, representing approximately half of this key electoral demographic.

 

VOTING AGE POPULATION VERSUS CERTIFIED VOTERS’ ROLL FOR 2024 NPE BY AGE BRACKET
AGE GROUP	VAP	CERTIFIED VOTERS’ ROLL	%
18-19	2 032 272	550 687	27,1%
20-29	9 073 863	4 408 139	48,6%
30-39	10 198 809	6 831 835	67,0%
40-49	7 596 640	6 008 072	79,1%
50-59	5 083 116	4 578 479	90,1%
60-69	3 362 552	3 140 624	93,4%
70-79	1 775 083	1 541 439	86,8%
80+	630 750	723 202	114,7%
TOTAL	39 753 087	27 782 477	69,9%
Information sourced directly from the IEC (VAP figures were supplied by STATS SA as projected to May 2024)

Expect a lower voter turnout in the 2024 general elections

The 2019 election witnessed the lowest-ever voter turnout for a general election, 66%.

Just under a million voters chose not to turn up in the 2019 general election compared to 2014.

For the 2024 general elections, voters can now only vote at the voting station/ district where they are registered. Previously, registered voters could vote anywhere in the province, provided that they fill in the requisite forms.

However, this time around, if voters do not timeously apply to vote at another voting station where they are ordinarily resident, they will be turned away.

For me, this is a huge negative, considering voting levels are declining fast in elections.

One need only look at the patterns from the last 15 years, where voter national voter turnout hovered around 77% in 2009, only to dip to 66% by 2019.

While I understand the IEC’s commitment to running a smooth election, voter turnout should not be sacrificed on the altar of ensuring a logistical problem-free poll. This issue could have been handled differently, I feel.

What worsens this situation is that not sufficient voter education has been communicated on this matter.

And I can guarantee you, the IEC is in for a deluge of complaints come Election Day when hordes of voters will be turned away simply for not being registered in the voting district they choose to vote at.

VOTER TURNOUT FOR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY & PROVINCIAL LEGISLATURES 1994 – 2019
Regions	1994	1999	2004	2009	2014	2019
National	84.97	87.76	76.73	77.30	73.48	65.99
Eastern Cape	90.70	89.15	81.08	76.69	68.3	59.51
Free State	83.86	89.29	78.88	76.99	71.01	61.35
Gauteng	86.22	88.63	76.40	79.06	72.97	68.28
Kwazulu-Natal	77.50	85.91	73.51	79.87	75.98	66.15
Limpopo	89.95	89.87	77.09	80.38	60.72	56.36
Mpumalanga	83.96	88.33	80.28	75.96	72.85	63.20
North West	92.18	85.52	77.39	69.62	66.32	57.01
Northern Cape	83.98	86.73	76.04	72.60	71.29	64.12
Western Cape	86.53	85.92	73.05	77.78	72.76	66.28

Robben Island is not the smallest voting station

Despite the theory that Robben Island is the smallest voting district and media houses should therefore expect its results first on Election Day, there are literally hundreds of other voting districts with less than 100 registered voters.

Robben Island forms part of the Cape Town metro, ward 54 and currently boasts 165 registered voters. Its only voting station remains the John Craig Hall, situated on 37 Church Street.

But please see more details on the 21 voting districts with the lowest number of registered voters:

THE 21 SMALLEST VOTING DISTRICTS FOR THE 2024 GENERAL ELECTIONS
PROVINCE	METRO/ DC	MUNICIPALITY	WARD	VD	VOTERS
FS	Mangaung	Mangaung	49400041	22120344	4
KZN	King Cetshwayo	uMhlathuze	52802002	43480436	8
NC	SIYANDA	!KHEIS	30804001	65090314	12
FS	Thabo Mofutsanyane	Phumelela	41905006	22390073	13
KZN	uMkhanyakude	Jozini	52702020	43419427	14
NC	NAMAKWA	KAROO HOOGLAND	30606006	66010070	14
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	EMTHANJENI	30703007	65330142	14
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	KAREEBERG	30704002	65990087	19
FS	Lejweleputswa	Masilonyana	41801002	22630126	20
FS	Xhariep	Mohokare	41603004	22110084	21
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	EMTHANJENI	30703008	65340110	21
FS	Xhariep	Mohokare	41603005	22110095	22
NC	NAMAKWA	KAROO HOOGLAND	30606006	66000057	23
NC	NAMAKWA	KAROO HOOGLAND	30606006	66010069	23
MPU	Nkangala	Emalahleni	83102019	54650875	24
NC	John Taolo Gaetsewe	Joe Morolong	34501004	65690073	24
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	UMSOBOMVU	30702006	65290091	24
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	SIYATHEMBA	30707005	65280113	24
EC	Alfred Nzo	Matatiele	24401014	11780535	25
FS	Mangaung	Mangaung	49400028	21870772	25
NC	Pixley Ka Seme	UBUNTU	30701005	65350065	25
SOURCED FROM THE IEC

 

Dr. Ronesh Dhawraj is with the SABC News & Current Affairs division