Putin acting ‘irrationally’ but negotiated solution possible – Analyst

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Russia’s increasingly intense attacks on Ukraine indicate that President Vladimir Putin is no longer acting rationally, an analyst told Reuters on Thursday, but there still may be hope for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

Mary Ellen O’ Connell, Professor of International Dispute Resolution at the University of Notre Dame, said that the conflict is at a critical juncture, and that Russia’s failure to attain its military objectives provides an opportunity.

“Right now there is real reason on both sides to reach a negotiated settlement with real concessions that could support ongoing peace,” she said.

O’ Connell warned however that it may take more attrition on both sides to reach a tipping point in talks.

Three weeks into the conflict, Russian troops have been halted at the gates of Kyiv, having taken heavy losses and failing to seize any of Ukraine’s biggest cities in a war Western officials say Moscow expected to win within days.

New talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on a status for Ukraine outside of NATO lifted hope on Wednesday for a potential breakthrough.

In what was seen as a major shift, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said on Tuesday Ukraine could accept international security guarantees that stopped short of its longstanding aim to join NATO.

Keeping Ukraine out of the Western military alliance was one of Russia’s main demands before it invaded Ukraine.

O’ Connell said that while Russian anger over NATO expansion may have been understandable, Putin’s resort to a massive invasion of Ukraine as a response is not. Why is it in Russia’s interest to both become a pariah state, to damage its economy so severely through international sanctions.

To have its forces committing war crimes in the territory of Ukraine where so many Russians have relatives?” she asked.

“It makes very little sense. So, I’m beginning to believe along the lines of others that believe this is really a moment of true irrationality by President Putin,” she added.

Nevertheless, O’ Connell said, a negotiated settlement based on neutrality for Ukraine with alternative security guarantees to NATO membership is still promising.

“Such an arrangement could allow Putin an off ramp out of the conflict,” she said.

O’ Connell suggested that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe could provide for such a framework.

The Kremlin has said the sides were discussing status for Ukraine similar to that of Austria or Sweden, both members of the European Union that are outside the NATO military alliance.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator said Kyiv was still demanding a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.

One potential variable in an already volatile situation were the actions of China, O’ Connell said.

US President Joe Biden will hold a call on Friday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as Washington warned China was considering military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“No doubt if China gives one single bullet to Russia it’s in violation, it’s complicit in a violation of the UN Charter prohibition on the use of force,” O’ Connell said.

“I would really hope that China would see its future interests are in the international economic system, in the international environmental system of rules if it wants to have a healthy planet for its population going forward,” she added.

China has refused to condemn Russia’s action in Ukraine or call it an invasion, and it has censored online content in China that is pro-West or unfavourable to Russia. Beijing, while saying it recognizes Ukraine sovereignty, has also said Russia has legitimate security concerns that should be addressed.

4 months ago