Analysts see KZN as key battleground in unpredictable 2024 polls

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Analysts say KwaZulu-Natal could be a significant election battlefield of the 2024 elections, as the country faces its most unpredictable election of the post-apartheid era this year.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and African National Congress (ANC) are among the big political parties that are going to be launching their election manifestos at the Moses Mabida Stadium in the coming weeks.

Polls suggest that the ANC may receive less than 50% of the national vote for the first time ever, amid public concern about growing corruption and poor service delivery.

Independent Election Analyst Michael Edkins says, “It certainly looks like a very interesting period in KZN, due to two factors. KZN shares the national vote. Although Gauteng is larger, KZN shares the national vote, which has been growing steadily increasing over the years. The support patterns are changing in the province. So, I think parties see opportunities to make gains which will have a big effect on the national total as well. Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) has to eat into ANC support in the province in 2009 and 2014 was largely due to former President Jacob Zuma, we don’t know how many of those voters will follow Zuma to MK, we don’t know how many could return to IFP in seeing what is happening within the ANC.”